Israel's insubordination and President Trump's stance on the Two-State Solution.

        Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi) met US President Barack Obama at the White House on 15^th February 2017. It was the first time that Bibi met with a Republican US President. The United States always has been a hard-line Israel supporter in the Middle East. It is due to the US support, Israel has been able to maintain a deadly clout among the Arab region. In the press conference following their Oval Office meeting, when asked about his stance on the Two-State solution, President Donald Trump cited that he was either okay with the One-State or Two-State solution. He also suggested that it is a mutual decision of Israel and Palestine and they themselves should decide what is best for them. By saying this, President Trump has shattered the two-decade-long US policy about this sensitive region. President Trump’s stand on this issue reflects a definite policy change. The Two-State solution has been the crux of US foreign policy in dealing with the Israelis and Palestinians. This solution is a conventional way to achieve regional peace. With Trump calling for his stance on any of these solutions is an unwelcoming sign for the human rights, peacekeeping activists, and the United Nations. They all have strongly voiced out against this stand. They also claim a thick probability that a One-State solution will lead to a fierce argument and will end up teaming all Arab nations versus Israel and the United States, which will lead to an unstable region.  The Two-State solution is when Israel and Palestine have their sovereign countries besides each other ensuring minimum violence and efforts for regional peace. The One-State solution is a region where the Jews, Muslims, and Christians would reside together as one country and one people. The people of Palestine and majority of its political parties agree to the One-State solution. The only thing that scares them is the aggressive approach and policies of Israel. With such an aggressive player in the game, the Palestinians are wary about the effects that the One-State solution will bring up to. The obvious possibility with a One-State solution will lead to an apartheid system is what the Palestinians fear the most. The coalition parties and a nationalist government of Bibi have always welcomed the One-State solution. Bibi also has under the rising pressure from his far-right supporters to tap the land under dispute and even annex the parts of West Bank. On the other hand, Hamas – a militant group that controls the Gaza strip is exerting equal pressure on the Palestinian authority to stop and salvage Israel’s policies. For them, the Two-State solution is a pain-point. Bibi, on the contrary, has agreed to ensure the regional peace and stability since 2009 by backing the Two-State solution but political observers say that Bibi in private has never been for about the Two-State solution. Bibi has assured the Palestinians with deep-seated autonomy and statehood without sovereignty, which is loosely termed as a ‘state-minus’ solution. For someone with an understanding of Bibi’s policies, it is very much obvious that Bibi and his coalition government reject the Two-State solution and do not agree with a One-State solution. No one until yet has been able to put out an upright solution that would satisfy both camps. Moreover, this is where this issue is suspended badly. With Trump proposing his affirmation for any of these solutions, Bibi is on a high horse and Trump’s shift in the US’s policies has set the tone for next four years. However, his comments during his campaign and now from the White House are contradicting and signal ignorance of the subject.

The current dispute between Israel and Palestine has been a hot and contemporary issue since 1944. Jews, which accounted only 3% of the total population, took a hold of the Palestinian land. Western powers have triggered on a perpetual conflict between these two groups since then. We have witnessed three major wars between Israel and Palestine. During the 1967 war, Israel conquered east Jerusalem, West Bank and almost all of the ancient Palestine. Palestine can rule over the Gaza strip and the West Bank but that entire region until today armed by the Israeli military. Israel has illegally built up homes and settlements in the region that inhabits Palestinians. This act of Israel has is a no surprise act and Israel has continued to do so for years now. In December 2016, major nations in the United Nations assembly voiced out their opinion against these illegal settlements and warned about a serious violence in the region. They all proposed an anti-settlement law against Israel. Israel anticipated that the Obama administration would veto the bill. However, Obama and then Secretary of State John Kerry have since long have refused to support Israel on its unnecessary aggressiveness that has sparked violence. Here, while the anti-settlement bill was proposed, Obama administration refused to veto against the bill. This act of the Obama administration is a final nail of President Obama’s foreign policy, which hit hard to Bibi. Then President-elect Donald Trump tweeted angrily over US’s approach about Israel and vowed that we would stand bedside Israel during his administration period. It was then Bibi and the Israeli Knesset passed a bill that would allow 6000 new homes in the sensitive region. This all happened during the last days of Obama administration knowing that Trump would be soon on the throne. This act though, has caused a major uproar. Jerusalem, the capital of Israel is another hot issue. Jerusalem city has a historical importance. It also has an utmost religious significance for Jews, Muslims and Christians. Palestine wishes to have Jerusalem as its capital. All major nations have their embassies at Tel Aviv. Donald trump during his budding campaign days had said that we would consider moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem. If he does so, he will signal out US’s affirmation for Jerusalem as Israel’s illegally captured capital and would spark a rage amongst the Arab nations. President Trump has also vowed strong sanctions on Iran for firing the ballistic missiles and has said that he will tear up the Iran nuclear deal. His current decision has banned any new visas to be issued to the citizens of Iran, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Libya although this decision is still under the judicial affirmation. Trump has named his son-in-law Jared Kushner as the special envoy to the Middle East and has claimed that we will resolve peace to the region. Kushner being a Jew is considered as pro-Israel and has faced severe criticism over his pro-Israel stance. With their teaming up and criticizing, the Trump administration, Jared Kushner, President Trump and his administration are ought to walk a tightrope!

The last war fought between Israel and Palestine 1973 compelled Israel to concede the defeat. Israel later in 1978 compromised with Egypt’s then President Anwar Sadat and handed over the Sinai desert region. With this, the US and Israel was able to divide the Arab league and dilute the Arab unity. Furious over Egypt changing of aisle, the Arab league expelled Egypt from the Arab league. Later in 1978, the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) assassinated President Anwar Sadat in Cairo. The current supremo al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri has his roots with EIJ! Terrorism and Israel have had a parallel space. A strong dislike for Israel has been one of the reasons of the growing Islamic terrorism and radicalism. Israel continuing to avenge the centuries old war and illegally expanding its foothold will draw more terrorist activities. The United States will also feel the fire because of bedding with Israel. Hope the entire Trump administration considers this before they carve out new foreign policies. 

                                                                                                                                            -Vazir

The Marathi version of this article was published in the editorial section of 'Sakal' dated Tuesday, 28th February 2017.

इस्राइलची मुजोरी आणि जगाला घोर

मागील आठवड्यात डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प यांची इस्राइलचे पंतप्रधान बेंजामिन नेतान्याहू यांनी अमेरिकेत भेट घेतली. अमेरिका नेहमीच इस्राइलचा खंदा पाठीराखा राहिला आहे. मात्र, भेटीनंतर झालेल्या पत्रकार परिषदेत ट्रम्प यांनी अमेरिकेच्या इस्राइलबाबतीत बदलत असलेल्या धोरणांचे संकेत दिले. 'अमेरिकेला द्विराज्य अथवा एका राज्याची संकल्पना यातील काहीही चालेल. हा निर्णय इस्राइल आणि पॅलेस्टिनला घ्यायचा आहे' असे ट्रम्प यांनी सांगितले. अमेरिका गेली दोन दशके द्विराज्य संकल्पनेला पाठिंबा देत आली आहे. द्विराज्य संकल्पना म्हणजे इस्राइलच्या लगत स्वतंत्र पॅलेस्टिनची स्थापना आणि कायमस्वरूपी शांतता आणि एकोप्याचे प्रयत्न. एक राज्य संकल्पना म्हणजे जिथे ज्यू, ख्रिस्ती आणि इस्लामधर्मीय नागरिक एका राज्यात लोकशाही मार्गाने एकत्र नांदतील. पॅलेस्टिनचा एक राज्य संकल्पनेला विरोध नाहीये मात्र या एक राज्यपद्धतीत इस्राइलकडून दुय्यम वागणूक मिळेल अशी त्यांची भीती आहे. इस्राइलचा जमीन आणि अधिकार ओरबाडण्याचा इतिहास पाहता त्यांची ही भीती रास्त आहे. आक्रमक नेतान्याहू आणि त्यांच्या कट्टर उजव्या आघाडी सरकारला हा द्विराज्य संकल्पनेचा जाच नकोच आहे. ट्रम्प यांच्या विधानामुळे त्यांना आता स्फुरण चढले आहे. या पट्ट्यातील अमेरिकेच्या संपूर्ण परराष्ट्रीय धोरणाचा गाभा द्विराज्य संकल्पना राहिला आहे. याच धोरणाच्या जिवावर आंतरराष्ट्रीय गट इस्राइल आणि पॅलेस्टिनमध्ये शांतता प्रस्थापित करू पाहत आहेत. द्विराज्य संकल्पना या समन्वयाच्या टेकूला ट्रम्प यांनी धक्का दिला आहे. ट्रम्प यांच्या या भूमिकेचा पॅलेस्टिन आणि आंतरराष्ट्रीय समुदायाने विरोध केला आहे. यातून इस्राइलचा जोर वाढून अरबांसोबत असलेले जुने भांडण धार धरून आणि मध्यपूर्वेत भडका उडण्याची शक्यता गडद झाली आहे.

१९४४ पासून इस्राइल आणि पॅलेस्टिन हा ताजा वाद आपण बघतो आहोत. पॅलेस्टिनच्या जमिनीवर सुमारे ३ टक्के ज्यू लोक राहत असताना तिथे इस्राइल देशाची स्थापना करून पाश्चात्य देशांनी कायमची वात पेटवून दिली आहे. या संघर्षात ३ युद्ध झाली.

(L-R) US President Donald Trump, First Lady
Melania Trump, Sara, and Benjamin Netanyahu
at the White House, Washington D.C.
Image credit - Google

यातील १९६७च्या युद्धात इस्राइलने पॅलेस्टिन भूमीचा पश्चिम किनारा, पूर्व जेरुसलेम आणि जवळपास सर्वच प्राचीन पॅलेस्टिन आपल्या ताब्यात घेतला. पॅलेस्टिनला नंतर गाझा पट्ट्यात आणि पश्चिम किनाऱ्यावर राज्य करण्यास मुभा दिली गेली मात्र आजही तिथे इस्राइलचे लष्कर ठाण मांडून आहे. अनधिकृतपणे या वादग्रस्त जमिनीवर पॅलेस्टिनी लोकांना हुसकावून लावत इस्राइलने आपली वसाहत उभारली आहे. याचे प्रमाण वाढत असताना, गेल्या डिसेंबरमध्ये संयुक्त राष्ट्रसंघात इस्राइलच्या या डावाला विरोध करण्यात आला. अमेरिका आपल्या पाठीशी उभी राहील अशी अपेक्षा असताना ओबामा सरकारने नकाराधिकार वापरला नाही. त्यामुळे नेतान्याहू आणि इस्राइलचे पित्त खवळले होते. ओबामा आणि नेतान्याहू यांचे संबंध कायमच ताणलेले होते. मात्र, ट्रम्प यांचा विजय निश्चित होताच इस्राइलच्या केनेसेटने (संसद) सुमारे ६००० नवीन घरांना या वसाहतीत बांधकामाची परवानगी दिली आहे. या निर्णयामुळे एकच आगडोंब उसळला असून एकूणच शांतता प्रक्रियेत खंड पडण्याची चिन्हे आहेत. त्यात जेरुसलेम या शहरावरून मोठा वाद आहे. हे शहर ज्यू, ख्रिस्ती आणि इस्लामधर्मीयांसाठी पवित्र श्रद्धास्थान आहे. त्यावर आता इस्राइलचा ताबा आणि राजधानी असून पॅलेस्टिनला आपली राजधानी म्हणून जेरुसलेम हव आहे. अमेरिकेसकट सर्व देशांचा इस्राइलमधला दूतावास हा 'तेल अवीव'मध्ये आहे. तो दूतावास आपण जेरुसलेममध्ये हलवू शकतो असे ट्रम्प यांनी सांगितले आहे. तसे केल्यास अमेरिका इस्राइलने बेकायदा बळकावलेल्या जेरुसलेमला मान्यता देईल आणि बाकी अरब देशांना हे नक्की रुचणार नाही ज्याचे पर्यावसान मोठ्या संघर्षात होईल. त्यात ट्रम्प यांनी इस्राइलच्या संरक्षणासाठी इराणशी झालेला अणूकरार रद्द करून इराणवर निर्बंध कडक करण्याचा मानस जाहीर केला आहे. तसेच आपला जावई जॅरेड खुशनेर याला इस्राइल-पॅलेस्टिन वादात पंचाची भूमिका देऊन राजकीय जाणकारांची टीका ओढवून घेतली आहे. खुशनेर हे ज्यू धर्माचे असून ते इस्राइलची बाजू घेतील अशी भीती अरब देशांना आहे. त्यामुळेच हे अरब देश आता पुन्हा एकदा पॅलेस्टिनच्या मागे एकवटू शकतात. त्यांची एकी फोडत, इस्राइलची भलामण तसेच शांतता स्थापन करताना ट्रम्प, खुशनेर आणि त्यांचा मंत्रिमंडळाची दमछाक होणार आहे.

१९७३च्या युद्धात पिछाडीवर गेलेल्या इस्राइलने नंतर १९७८मध्ये  इजिप्तचे तत्कालीन अध्यक्ष अन्वर सादात यांच्याशी समझोता करून त्यांना सिनाई वाळवंटाचा प्रदेश परत दिला होता. हे करून इस्राइलने 'अरब लीग'मधून इजिप्तला फोडून धूर्त खेळी खेळली होती. यामुळे इस्राइल विरोधात स्थापन केलेल्या 'अरब लीग'मधून इजिप्तची हकालपट्टी केली गेली. हे कमी म्हणून की काय ऑक्टोबर १९८१मध्ये इजिप्तचे अध्यक्ष अन्वर सादात यांची 'इजिप्तीयन इस्लामिक जिहाद' (इआयजे) या दहशतवादी गटाने कैरोमध्ये दिवसाढवळ्या हत्या केली.  

(L-R) US President-Elect Donald Trump and
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
at Trump Towers,  Manhattan, NY.
Image credit - Google

अल-कायदाचा सध्याच्या म्होरक्या अयमान अल-जवाहिरी, ज्याचा मूळ देश इजिप्त आहे तो याच 'इआयजे'चा कट्टर कार्यकर्ता! मध्य-पूर्वेत आणि जगात इतरत्र फोफावलेल्या दहशतवादाच्या कारणांपैकी इस्राइलचा द्वेष हे एक कारण आहे. इस्राइल आणि दहशतवादाचा संबंध जुना आहे. इस्राइलचा हा जमीनहडप्पी प्रकार आणि मुजोरी दहशतवादी घटकांना उत्तेजन देत आली आहे. इस्राइलची वर्तमानातली ही तिरकी चाल बरीच उलथापालथ करू शकते. इस्राइलची तळी उचलून धरल्यामुळे अमेरिकेलाही दहशतीचा रोष पत्करावा लागला आहे. 'जगाच्या नकाशावरून दहशतवाद संपवू' अशी शपथविधीवेळी वल्गना करणाऱ्या डोनाल्ड ट्रम्पना इस्राइल-पॅलेस्टिन प्रकरण हाताळताना अधिक सावधानता साधावी लागणार आहे. आधीच पेटलेल्या मध्य-पूर्वेत घाईत घेतलेला एक निर्णय अथवा अनावधानाने झालेली एक चूक अमेरिकेला आणि तुम्हाला-आम्हाला फार काही भोगायला लावू शकते. ट्रम्प याची काळजी घेतील अशी अपेक्षा तूर्त बाळगूयात. 

                                                                      - वज़ीर 

हा लेख मंगळवार, २८ फेब्रुवारी २०१७च्या 'सकाळ'च्या संपादकीय पानावर (पान ६) छापण्यात आला.

Syrian crisis - the rising influence of Russia and Iran.

    High-level delegates from Russia, Iran, and Turkey gathered together last month at Astana, Kazakhstan to discuss the fate of Syrian citizens and the Syrian crisis. These three major players had also invited members of the Syrian regime and the Syrian opposition for the talks. It was after a gap of over nine months that Syrian regime and opposition had a face-to-face discussion. The talks were called-off on the first day itself. Russia, Iran, and Turkey finally somehow managed to implement a ceasefire in Syria. Diplomatic efforts of US’s Ex-Secretary of State John Kerry gathered no steam as he spent his last two years on the job shuttling for a breakout and Russia never took him seriously. Delegates from the Donald Trump administration were formally invited to the talks but the United States preferred to be on the sidelines and just dispatched its Ambassador to Kazakhstan as their representative. Invitation to the Donald Trump administration for the talks and further discussions indicate a paradigm shift in the global affairs. The ceasefire to be implemented is of a military type. An agreement that has been put on paper is to have a military ceasefire which will allow the aid and necessary facilities to reach to the civilians who are under siege. A political ceasefire with such a complex field of entities and vested interests in the Syrian crisis is a long shot for now. A greater degree of diplomacy and an equally high level of political will is an utmost necessity to seek a political solution for the Syrian crisis. The Syrian opposition or rebels have been long funded by the United States and Turkey. These rebels for four years now have controlled Aleppo. The Assad regime along with a strong air support from Russia and a ground support from Iran stormed through Aleppo and leveraged the equation of this crisis. With Aleppo out of the control both politically and militarily and the Trump administration shaking head for any concrete support, the Syrian rebels lost a bargaining chip using which they were trying to topple Bashar al-Assad off his throne. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS) were excluded from the Astana talks. ISIS and JFS now categorized as terrorist groups are under the watch of all entities involved in the ceasefire. Vladimir Putin is emerging as the supreme peace-maker!

Damascus, the capital of Syria and the area adjacent to it is under the control of President Bashar al-Assad. Large swathes of Syria are still under the control of rebels, Kurds, JFS, and ISIS. The rebels control the Wadi Barada village. All the water that is supplied to Damascus is channeled and pumped through Wadi Barada. The rebels have chopped off the water supply to the Syrian capital. With water and life at stake, the Assad regime has violated the ceasefire as is calling shots on the rebels. Rebels on the other hand claim that the water has been cut down due to the indiscriminate bombing by the regime. Damascus is facing an acute water shortage and that according to the United Nations is a threat to over 5 million citizens. JFS on a quest to dominate the rebels has kicked-off skirmishes with the other rebel and terrorist groups. Terror groups with a small impact and short-term agendas are now inclining towards Ahrar al-Sham. Coming months will witness a clear face-off battle between JFS and Ahrar al-Sham. JFS and Ahrah al-Sham are both gaining power and it should not be ignored. With the Kurds occupying large north-eastern and north-western, their demand for a separate Kurdistan will embrace more power now. Turkey is a staunch opponent of separate Kurdistan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is on a definite soft authoritarianism. His nationalist speeches and approach to control the Syrian area indicate his right-winged inclination. Last week Erdoğan has managed to put his 4500+ opponents behind the bars. 

Iran now holds a major authority on how things shape up in Syria. Its power is not just contained in Tehran but is now on a definite crescent across the region. With the Presidential elections lined up in May 2017, Iran will look out for a more aggressive nationalist and sectarian approach. The death of Iran's ex-President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani will carve the country's politics in a different manner. Rafsanjani was known to us as a moderate leader who did the balancing act of managing the hardliners and moderate Iranians. Hassan Rouhani is said to be following his footsteps and Rafsanjani is said to be his power behind the scenes to call on for the Iran nuclear deal. With Rafsanjani out of the picture and nationalism blazing more aggressively, the elections lined up in few months will be a thing to be watched out for. It will be interesting to see how Saudi and other Sunni dominated countries tolerate the rising influence of Iran. For them, their outreach will not just limit to Iran but they also will have to tackle Russia. Russia being on the opposite side of the table along with Iran is a bout to worry about Saudi Arabia. Saudi for all its hopes is now eager to see which side the Trump administration chooses. The Trump administration will also be checked for its skill to balance these sectarian ambitions and violence. For now, the Syrian crisis is far beyond any ceasefire talks and diplomacy. It all now depends on how Russia and Iran decide to politicize this crisis and emerge as strong allies’ down-the-line. 

                                                                                                                                          -Vazir

The Marathi version of this article was published in the editorial section of 'Sakal' dated Tuesday, 31st January 2017.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

सीरियाचे युद्ध - रशिया आणि इराणची सरशी

          
    कझाकस्तानची राजधानी अस्तानामध्ये गेल्या आठवड्यात रशिया, इराण आणि तुर्कस्तानने सीरियाचे सरकार आणि त्याच्या विरोधकांमध्ये बैठक बोलावली होती. सुमारे नऊ महिन्यांनंतर सरकार आणि विरोधकांचे प्रतिनिधी एकमेकांसमोर आले. या मध्यस्थी देशांनी मग चर्चा करून सीरियात शस्त्रसंधी लागू करण्याचा निर्णय घेतला. शस्त्रसंधीची ही मान्यता लष्करी स्वरूपाची आहे. सीरियन संघर्षाच्या राजकीय तोडग्यावर अजून या दोनही मूळ घटकांचे एकमत नाही. गेली सहा वर्ष ज्या दोन घटकांमधून विस्तव जात नव्हता त्यांच्यात राजकीय स्वरूपाची एकवाक्यता व्हायची चिन्हे आत्ता तरी दिसत नाहीत. सीरियन सरकारच्या विरोधकांना अमेरिका आणि तुर्कस्तान रसद पुरवत होती. या एकंदर प्रश्नातून अमेरिकेने आता अंग काढून घ्यायला सुरु केल्यापासून या विरोधकांची पार हवा निघून गेली आहे. त्यात अलेप्पोचा ताबा सीरियाचे अध्यक्ष बशर अल-असद यांच्याकडे गेल्यानंतर विरोधकांना लष्करी शस्त्रसंधी मान्य करण्याशिवाय पर्याय राहिला नाही. या चर्चेत 'आयसिस' आणि 'अल-कायदा'चे समर्थन करणारी 'जब्हत फतेह अल-शम' यांना स्थान नव्हते. सर्वांनी मिळून या दोन दहशतवादी गटांचा बिमोड करायचा असे ठरले आहे. गेली दोन वर्ष अमेरिकेचे परराष्ट्रमंत्री जॉन केरी तोडगा काढू पाहत असताना रशिया त्यात खो घालत होता. आता या बैठकीत रशियाने अमेरिकेला फक्त औपचारिकपणे बोलवून आपला धूर्तपणा दाखवून दिला आहे. अलेप्पोच्या पाडावानंतर सीरिया प्रश्नात रशिया म्हणेल ती पूर्व दिशा ठरत आहे. 

सीरियाची राजधानी दमस्कस आणि त्याच्या आसपासचा परिसर असद सरकारच्या ताब्यात आहे. बाकी सीरियावर 'आयसिस', 'जब्हत फतेह अल-शम', विरोधक आणि  कुर्दिश फौजांचा ताबा आहे. दमस्कस शहराबाहेर 'वादी बरादा' नावच गाव आहे जेथून दमस्कसला पाणीपुरवठा होतो. 'जब्हत फतेह अल-शम'ने हा पाणीपुरवठा तोडला आहे.

(L-R) Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and
Russian President Vladimir Putin
at The Kremlin, Russia.
Image credit - Google

पाण्यावाचून राजधानीत हाल होत असताना असद सरकारने शस्त्रसंधी मोडून आता 'वादी बरादा'मध्ये लढाई सुरु केली आहे. संयुक्त राष्ट्रसंघानुसार सुमारे पन्नास लाख लोकांच्या पाण्याचा हा प्रश्न आहे. त्यातच परवा 'जब्हत फतेह अल-शम'ने बाकी दहशतवादी गटांसोबत भांडण उकरून एकमेकांच्या तळांवर जोरदार हल्ले केले आहेत. त्यामुळेच इतके दिवस सोबत असलेले दहशतवादी गट आता 'जब्हत फतेह अल-शम'चा पदर सोडून 'अहरार अल-शम'च्या मांडवात दाखल झाले आहेत. विरोधकांमधली ही दुफळी असद यांच्या पथ्यावर पडत आहे. रशियाच्या वायू हल्ल्यांच्या मदतीपाठोपाठ इराणच्या पायदळामुळे असद आपली खुर्ची राखून आहेत. अलेप्पोची लढाई सुरु असताना 'आयसिस'ने पुन्हा एकदा संयुक्त राष्ट्रसंघाच्या जागतिक वारसा असलेल्या 'पाल्मायरा'चा ताबा घेऊन सर्वांना धक्का दिला आहे. त्यांची ही चाल असद सरकार रशिया आणि इराणच्या मदतीशिवाय हतबल आणि सामर्थ्यहीन असलयाचे निदर्शित करते. त्यामुळेच, चर्चेमुळे संवाद जरी सुरु झाला असला तरी वाद मिटणे अवघड आहे. अखंड सीरियावर कोणा एकाचे राज्य आता शक्य नाही. कुर्दिश गटाने सीरियातील बहुतांशी उत्तर-पूर्व आणि तुर्कीस्तानला जोडून असणाऱ्या उत्तर-पश्चिम भागावर आपले वर्चस्व राखले आहे. 'आयसिस'च्या विरोधात यशस्वीपणे लढणारा घटक म्हणून कुर्दिश गटाकडे पहिले जाते. स्वतंत्र कुर्दिस्तानच्या त्यांच्या मागणीला आता अधिक बळ मिळाले आहे. येत्या काळात या कुर्दिश फौजांसोबत असद आणि पलीकडील तुर्कीस्तान हिंसा करून स्वतंत्र कुर्दिस्तानला विरोध करतील. कुर्दिश फौजांचा विरोध करतानाच जास्तीत जास्त सीरियन प्रदेश आपल्या टापेखाली कसा आणता येईल असा दुहेरी डाव तुर्कस्तानचे अध्यक्ष रेसेप तय्यिप एर्दोगान  खेळत आहेत. त्यांनी आपली अध्यक्षीय ताकद वाढवायला सुरुवात केली आहे. हुकूमशाहीकडे त्याचा प्रवास सुरु असून येत्या काही महिन्यांत ते जाहीरपणे हे धोरण स्वीकारतील. मात्र, असद यांना हटवण्याची मागणी आता तुर्कस्तानने सोडून दिली आहे. या संपूर्ण गुंतागुंतीत इराणचे महत्व वाढले आहे. सीरियाच्यापलीकडे लेबेनॉनमध्ये असलेल्या 'हेजबोल्लाह'ला इराणचा पाठिंबा आहे. आपल्या स्थापनेनंतरच्या तीन दशकांनंतरदेखील हेजबोल्लाह इराणवर पैसे आणि हत्यारांसाठी अवलंबून आहे. तशी जाहीर कबुली हेजबोल्लाह'चे प्रमुख हसन नासरल्लाह यांनी दिली आहे. हेजबोल्लाह'ला पुरविण्यात येणाऱ्या रसदीचा मार्ग सीरियातून जातो आणि म्हणूनच इराण आणि 'हेजबोल्लाह'ला असद खुर्चीवर हवे आहेत. इराकमधील शिया सरकार - शियाबहुल इराण - शियापंथात मोडणारे सीरियाचे अध्यक्ष असद - लेबेनॉनमधील शिया समर्थक हेजबोल्लाह असा नवा शिया दबावगट तयार झाला आहे. या सर्वांचा मेरुमणी इराण आहे. त्यात इराणमध्ये येत्या मे महिन्यात अध्यक्षपदाची निवडणूक आहे. ती डोळ्यासमोर ठेवून इराण राष्ट्रभावनेला आणि पंथीय अस्मितेला धार देईल असे स्पष्टपणे दिसते. 

शियापंथाचा आणि शियाबहुल देशांचा वाढू लागलेला जोर या समस्त सुन्नी पट्ट्याला आणि देशांना कितपत रुचतो हे बघणे गरजेचे आहे.

(L-R) Russian President Vladimir Putin
and Iran's Supreme leader Ali Khamenei at Tehran, Iran.
Image credit - Google

या शियापंथीय गटाच्या बाजूने रशिया भक्कमपणे उभा राहिला आहे. रशियाच्या मदतीमुळेच हा गट आपला जोर मध्य-पूर्वेत सर्वत्र वापरू पाहतो आहे. बराक ओबामांच्या कार्यकाळात सीरियामध्ये अमेरिका या शियागटाच्या विरोधात होती. अमेरिकेचे नवनिर्वाचित अध्यक्ष डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प आता कोणाच्या पारड्यात अमेरिकेचे सामर्थ्य ओततात यावर तेथील समीकरण वळण घेतील. ट्रम्प यांना हा निर्णय घेणे तितके सोपे जाणार नाही. पंथीय वैराच वारं कानात शिरल्यामुळे अश्या चर्चांना आणि शस्त्रसंधीच्या बैठकांना हे अरब देश जुमानतील असे वाटत नाही. त्यांच्या या जुंपाजुंपीत आणि अमेरिका-रशियासारख्या बड्या राष्ट्रांनी खांद्यावर बंदूक ठेवल्यामुळे अख्खा प्रदेश अस्थिर झाला आहे. हीच अस्थिरता पुढे अराजकतेचे रूप घेऊन जगात इतरत्र आपल्या छटेचे सावट गडद करत आहे. म्हणूनच हा पेच सामंजस्याने सोडविल्यास फक्त आखातात नव्हे तर आंतरराष्ट्रीय पातळीवर शांतता नांदेल. पण वादाची कात टाकून हे स्थानिक देश ही राजकीय इच्छाशक्ती दाखवतील का या प्रश्नावर सारे काही अवलंबून आहे. 
                                                                                                                                                 - वज़ीर 


हा लेख मंगळवार, ३१ जानेवारी २०१७च्या 'सकाळ'च्या संपादकीय पानावर (पान ६) छापण्यात आला.

Middle-East in shambles.

    An offensive that started to take up the eastern Aleppo which was held by the Syrian rebels gained quite a momentum in the final days of November 2016. The Syrian regime backed by Russia's strong air-power and Iran militias stormed through the largest Syrian city and the commercial hub of the country - Aleppo. Aleppo was under the control of the Syrian rebels for more than four years now. Aleppo, the 'New-york' of Syria, is said to be one of the most ancient civilizations. It is said to have a historic and cultural significance that dates back to more than 5000 years; a city which is mentioned in 'Macbeth' and 'Othello' - William Shakespeare's finest works; a city which has witnessed rich colors and flavors of heterogeneous ethnic masses, food, culture, and religions. The 'Syrian rebel' is a complex collection of armed groups that oppose the rule and regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Assad is 'Alawite' which falls under the Shiite sect of Islam. His armed opponents are majorly from the Sunni sect of Islam. The armed opponents call themselves 'The Syrian Rebels'. The 'rebels' is a complex collection of armed groups with different agendas, different ideologies, and different strengths. Syria now has as much as 1,500 armed groups which have been declared as terrorist organizations. Some of them are nationalists, some regional and some locals just to achieve their short-term goals. The complexity of the entire Syrian crisis also goes to next level when these groups along with the sidelines of fighting with the Assad regime are fighting among themselves. Of these rebels, Free Syrian Army (FSA) is the most branded insurgent group that has been backed up by the United States. FSA during the beginning of the Syrian conflict tried to lead the rebels but now is incapable of managing the rebel groups with such a complexity. President Assad has been implementing 'divide and rule' policy among these rebels and so far has been successful.

It all started with the 'Arab Uprising' backed by the CIA in 2011. Iraq was already facing a sectarian violence and was a political doom. The uprising gathered steam in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia. The uprising was designed to topple the regime governments in Middle-East and Northern Africa which were already in a dictatorial mode. It gained massive success in Egypt and Tunisia. It also with some efforts was lubricated to a mass protest movement that turned violent against the rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and resulted in his road-side murder. (Courtesy - Hillary Rodham Clinton!) The same pattern was applied in Syria, now 6 years ago when a group of protesters started demonstrations against the Assad rule, peacefully. The government open-fired on them and the protests all over the nation took a violent turn. It is since then Syria is bleeding. The rebels are fighting with the government forces and among themselves. The government allied with Russia, Iran, and Iran-backed Hezbollah is fighting with the rebels backed by USA, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar. The complexity of the entire Syrian conflict is enormous. Add the Islamic State (IS) to this equation which is fighting with either side; also add the al-Qaeda faction Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra) and the crisis deepens exponentially. It was until September 2015 that Assad was on a complete back-foot. It is even reported that Assad was few hours from his miserable defeat before Russia dived into the war. It was due to the Russian air support that Assad government was able to corner and defeat the rebels. The United Nations in 2013 reported that Assad was using chemical weapons (Sarin gas) against the rebels and President Obama in a live address from the South Lawns of the White House warned Assad 'not to cross the red-line'. And despite proofs about the chemical usage, he flinched and delayed any actions to his warnings. It was only then Vladimir Putin decided to make strong moves in Middle-East. Putin himself was much cornered economically for his annexation in Crimea and Ukraine. Russia has a naval based set-up at the Tartus port just aligned with the Mediterranean Sea. The port is also a gateway for Russia into the Middle-East. Assad on the throne is always a beneficial deal for Russia. The United States wants Assad out of his office. The Sunni dominated nations besides Syria press for the same goal. Assad in this turmoil has Iran (the only Shiite dominated nation on the planet) beside him as his closest ally from the region. Iran after agreeing to shut-off its nuclear program and nuclear enrichment facilities on the other hand plans to defeat Saudi (the most Sunni dominated nation on the planet) in whichever way possible. The assets that belong to Iran which were frozen before the Iran nuclear deal are free now. Iran's oil is into the open markets. Iran's oil production was doubled in six months post the nuclear agreement. The aggressiveness of Iran has sparked proxy wars against Saudi in Syria and Yemen. Weapons worth billion dollars are being purchased and put to use for this senseless regional conflict and dominance. Despite the plummeting oil prices now in the bracket of 50-55 USD/barrel Iran and Saudi are on a conquest of a do-or-die situation. Their economies are on a definite decline. Its unemployment is soaring high like never before.

And with such a drift from Russia (entered into Middle-East after 20 long years) and Iran, Assad was gaining grounds against his opponents. Assad has crushed the rebels and the civilians in every possible way. He has used chemical weapons, slaughtering, airstrikes and double-tapped airstrikes have not spared the hospitals, women, children and any aid from the UN. And with such a dire seize around Aleppo, with a firing air-power, strong boots on the ground, the reluctance of Obama administration to help the rebels and Turkey turning away from the rebels, a ceasefire was agreed upon between Turkey-Russia and the Syrian rebels. Aleppo is free from the rebels now. Russia and Assad had dropped leaflets over Aleppo which warned the civilians 'to leave or they will be annihilated'. The ceasefire was not what Iran and Assad ever wanted. One conclusion that we can draw here is that Assad and Iran are with a complete vengeance. A ceasefire is something that they are not happy with. One more thing to notice here, Secretary of State John Kerry has been shuttling from Washington-Moscow-Tehran-Riyadh-Geneva-Venice for a possible breakthrough. Russia has opposed any ceasefire initiated by the US and now a ceasefire brokered by Russia now, the US is completely excluded! The Syrian crisis is the most miserable example of a defeat that reluctance can cause. Syria is the biggest failure of President Obama's foreign policy and the repercussions that it will cause are dangerous. The entire region has lost its stability and Putin despite being a military player is playing a peace-making role. Lebanon's Hezbollah even after three decades of its foundation solely depends on Tehran for its existence, weapons and money. The weapons that reach to Hezbollah are routed through Syria and this being also the reason that Iran wants Assad to be Syria's President. So on a strategic note, we see a Shiite crescent forming from Tehran - to Shiite dominated and governed Iraq - to Damascus - to Beirut. Russia on the opposite side is a failure for the United States and its allies. Turkey is a NATO ally. Turkey and the United States have funneled money via Saudi for IS's proliferation. They all along with Qatar have been partners-in-crime. Turkey was a landing point for the foreign fighters who landed in Istanbul to join the IS. Turkey opened its border with Syria for these foreign fighters to get to the IS headquarters in Syria and Iraq. Saudi has reportedly opened its prisons and asked the prisoners to join IS. This is all exposed now. Russia and the US striking the IS bases the foreign fighters are off to Europe. The radical youth trained and brain-washed in Syria and Iraq are into Europe as refugees. Europe itself has sleeper cells packed with radicals planning to strike. With the influx of these radical refugees and their blend with the sleeper cells will cost Europe. We have witnessed the dramatic rise in the crime incidents in past two years and attacks in Paris, Berlin and Nice have underlined this. The attackers have traveled across the Mediterranean and the European intelligence agencies have failed to detect their traces. Schengen is a problem now. Europe is on a definite time-bomb.

Turkey is said to have absorbed three million Syrian refugees. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faced a failed coup that was planned against him. After this failed attempt of the coup, Erdoğan has imprisoned over 40 thousand government employees, military officers, media-men and his opponents. It is now said that Erdoğan orchestrated this coup as a plan to curb his opponents. He now enjoys a wide national support and now is one of the right-winged leaders that are emerging across the globe. His hands dirty into the Syrian conflict have compelled him to pay the price. Turkey has faced over a dozen deadly attacks in the past year. Its proximity to the Syrian border and the rate with which Syrian refugees along with the terrorist elements are entering Erdoğan's country, Turkey is subject to a major chaos down-the-line. Erdoğan's foreign policy is in a pendulum mode. Considered to be a US ally and a NATO partner, Erdoğan has maintained trade relations with Russia. Russia and Turkey both are interdependent nations in terms of trade, economics, and tourism. Their bilateral relations worsened when a Russian fighter jet was shot down in 2016 and two Russian pilots were killed. But, Putin and Erdoğan seemed to have agreed upon their long-term goals and mutual benefits. But, the public assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov in Ankara after the fall of Aleppo may turn the equations upside down either-way. Putin will always welcome Turkey being on his side of the table. But, the current political situation indicated that Turkey will pay a heavy price for the Syrian conflict, for the gateway it provided to the foreign fighters, for the illegal, cheap oil that was smuggled by IS via Turkey. Besides all this, one major reason of concern for Erdoğan is the rising influence of the Kurds. Kurds are for over a decade now demanding a separate region - Kurdistan. The Kurds have been a major player battling against IS. And by conquering the IS territory, the Kurds have expanded the area under their control. Till the mid of Syrian conflict, PKK and YPG were declared as terrorist organizations by the United States. Now, the US allies have no choice but to accept the legitimacy of these Kurdish factions and are now shouldering with PKK and YPG to defeat IS. Growing demand for Kurdistan is a definite headache for Erdoğan. It will be interesting to see which side he chooses under the Trump administration.

For now, Assad is back to power with a brutal force. Assad, Russia, and Iran have managed to corner the FSA directly backed by the USA. Assad, before Trump, ends his honeymoon period will pace up his actions and now will approach Idlib which is under the control of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and then will make a final call to defeat IS in the de-facto capital of its Caliphate - Raqqa. The battle for both Raqqa and Idlib will cause a severe toll and equally bad humanitarian crisis. Iran and Saudi will continue their proxy wars and which in turn will continue the Syrian crisis for some more time now. It was said that Syria cannot unite again under one rule. Assad now claims he can unite Syria under one banner. But, during the battle for Aleppo, IS re-captured Palmyra from Assad's forces which clearly indicates the incapability of Assad to stand without Russian or Iranian support. Middle-East is on the verge of a dire future which will engulf the entities directly or indirectly associated with it into a dark future. The very basic principles and diplomatic equations are about to change as we witness some of the most dramatic-dynamic relations building up and breaking away at the same time. Middle-East will carve the foreign relations of the major nations across the globe. It will be interesting to see which side of the aisle these nations go for and how do they fulfill their individual, ever-growing ambitions!
                                                                                                                                           -Vazir

The Marathi version of this article was published in the editorial section of 'Sakal' dated Tuesday, 20th December 2016.

अलेप्पोनंतरचा सीरिया आणि पश्चिम-आशिया

गेल्या महिनाअखेरपासून सीरियाचे अध्यक्ष बशर अल-असद यांनी रशिया, इराण आणि हेजबोल्लाह यांच्या मदतीने सीरियातील अलेप्पो या सर्वात मोठ्या शहराचा ताबा असलेल्या विरोधकांशी निकाराची लढाई सुरु केली. अमेरिका, तुर्कस्तान, सौदी अरेबिया आणि इतर सुन्नीबहुल आखाती देशांनी या विरोधकांना रसद पुरवली आहे. याच रसदीच्या जीवावर हे विरोधक असद सरकारशी गेले चार वर्ष अलेप्पोत लढत आहेत. मात्र, रशियाच्या जोरदार हवाई हल्ल्यामुळे आणि अमेरिकेने एकूण सीरिया प्रकरणात केलेल्या दुर्लक्षामुळे असद सरकारने या विरोधकांना जेरीस आणले. कमी होणार संख्याबळ आणि दबावापोटी या विरोधकांनी रशियाशी बोलणी करून शस्त्रसंधी मान्य केली. इतके दिवस सामान्य नागरिकांच्या आडून लढाई करणाऱ्या विरोधकांचे असद सरकारने कंबरडे मोडले आहे. वेढा घातलेल्या अलेप्पोत सामान्य नागरिक अडकले होते. रुग्णालयांची, अन्न-पाण्याची वाताहात झाली होती. या शस्त्रसंधीमुळे जखमी नागरिक आणि हत्यारे टाकलेल्या विरोधकांना मोकळी वाट करून एका रक्तरंजित अध्यायाची समाप्ती झाली आहे. 

अलेप्पो हे तुर्कस्तान आणि सीरियाला जोडणार, बाजारपेठा असणार महत्वाचे शहर आहे. त्याचा ताबा मिळवणारा गट सीरिया प्रश्नात वरचढ ठरेल. इतके दिवस विरोधक अलेप्पोच्या जोरावर असद यांनी खुर्चीवरून खाली खेचू पाहत होते. त्यांच्या या प्रयत्नांना असद यांनी सुरुंग लावला आहे.

Aleppo, Syria
Image credit - Google

थेट धुळीस मिळवलेल्या विरोधकांचे असद यांना हटवण्याचे सामर्थ्य आत्ता तरी नाही. इच्छा मात्र फार आहे. अलेप्पोचा विजय हा सीरिया प्रकरणाचा कल बदलवू शकतो. आनंद साजरा करणाऱ्या असद, रशिया, इराण आणि लेबेनॉनच्या हेजबोल्लाह यांच्या आत्मविश्वासाला आता अधिक धार चढलेली पाहायला मिळेल. अमेरिकेचा पाठिंबा असलेल्या गटाचा पराजय तसेच, संपूर्ण सीरियातील लढ्यात आता असद यांचे पारडे जड असा हा दुहेरी आनंद आहे. असद हे 'अलावाईत' गटाचे असून ते शियापंथात मोडतात. त्यांचा विरोधक सुन्नी गटाला अमेरिकेने केलेली मदत त्यांना रूचली नाही. आणि म्हणूनच 'आयसिस'च्या ताब्यात असलेल रक्का आणि अल-कायदाच्या ताब्यातील इदलिब ही शहर सोडून त्यांनी अमेरिकेच थेट समर्थन असणाऱ्या विरोधकांच्या ताब्यातील अलेप्पोला हात घातला. आता त्यांचा रोख रक्का आणि इदलिब शहरांवर असेल. या लढाईत त्यांनी प्रजा आणि समोर येईल त्याला जमीनदोस्त करत अमेरिकेचा वचपा काढला. या एका डावामुळे त्यांनी आपली खुर्ची शाबूत राखली आहे. रशियाने मध्यस्थीची बोलणी करून आपणच शांतिदूत असल्याचे संकेत दिले आहे. सीरिया हा मध्य-पूर्वेतील रशियाचा सख्खा मित्र. त्याची मदत करतानाच आपण शांतता प्रस्थापित करू इच्छितो हे चाणाक्ष व्लादिमिर पुतीन यांनी दाखवून दिले आहे. तसेच दहशतवाद्यांना ठेचून युरोपकडे जाणाऱ्या निर्वासितांचा रेटा आपण थांबवू पाहत आहोत हे त्यांनी आधीच ग्रासलेल्या युरोपीय समुदायाला निदर्शित केले आहे. पुतीन यांच्या या चालीमुळे अमेरिकेच्या मध्य-पूर्वेतील धोरणांना जबर फटका बसला आहे. २०१३ साली असद यांना आवळून टाकण्याचे पुरावे असतानादेखील ओबामांनी बोटचेपे धोरण स्वीकारले. त्याचे थेट परिणाम म्हणून अमेरिका आज या प्रदेशात पिछाडीवर फेकली गेली आहे. ओबामांचा कार्यकाळ आता जवळपास संपला असताना, डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प यांच्या शपथविधी आधी असद आणि त्यांचे सहकारी आपल्या हालचालींमध्ये वेग आणतील असे स्पष्टपणे दिसते. परराष्ट्रीय धोरणाबाबत आपली ठोस भूमिका जाहीर न केलेले ट्रम्प रशियाशी हातमिळवणी करण्याची वाच्यता करीत आहेत. रेक्स टिलरसन या पुतीन यांच्या जवळील उद्योगपतीला परराष्ट्रमंत्रिपद देऊन त्यांनी ही वाच्यता सत्यात उतरवली आहे.

Aleppo, Syria
Image credit - Google

तसे केल्यास सौदी आणि आखातातील अमेरिकेचे इतर सहकारी काय भूमिका घेतात यावर या पट्ट्याची स्थैर्यता अवलंबून आहे. इराण आणि हेजबोल्लाहने असद यांना केलेली मदत शिया गटाचे वजन वाढवत आहेत. सुन्नी गटाचा कैवारी असणारी सौदी शिया गटाची होणारी ही सरशी किती खपवून घेतो यावर आंतरराष्ट्रीय राजकारण हेलकावे घेईल. मात्र, अलेप्पोत शाश्वत विजय मिळवलेला इराण आता शांत बसेल असे दिसत नाही. याच पद्धतीची शिया-सुन्नी लढाई इराण-सौदी येमेनमध्ये खेळत आहेत. अगदी परवा अमेरिकेने आपला हात किंचित आखडता घेत सौदीला शस्त्र मिळत राहतील असे जाहीर केले आहे. या गोंधळात संपूर्ण मध्य-पूर्वेत कैक कोटी डॉलरची शस्त्र रिचवली जात आहेत. या प्रदेशामधून निर्वासित म्हणून युरोपमध्ये दहशतवादी गेल्याचे गुप्तचर यंत्रणा सांगत आहेत. त्यामुळे मध्य-पूर्व आणि युरोपमध्ये धोक्याच्या घंटा वाजू लागल्या आहेत. अलेप्पो पडल्यानंतरदेखील सीरियात पेटलेला वणवा शमणार नाही तो यामुळेच. संबंधित घटक आणि त्यांची पणाला लागलेली प्रतिष्ठा मात्र या परिणामांच्या पलीकडे गेली आहे.

सुसंस्कृत आणि एकात्मिक प्रदेशाची डोळ्यांदेखत राख कशी होऊ शकते याचे अलेप्पो त्यामुळेच एक ज्वलंत उदाहरण आहे. अलेप्पोच्या पूर्वेला पडलेल्या वेढ्यातून जरी हा जनप्रवाह आता बाहेर आला असला तरी त्यांची ही सुटका सहजासहजी झालेली नाही. तब्बल चार वर्षांहून अधिक वेळ या शहरासाठी युद्ध सुरु होत. ही संपूर्ण वेळ त्यांनी उपासमार, रोजचा बॉम्बवर्षाव, कुपोषण, रोगराई आणि मरणाच्या छायेत घालवली आहेत.

Aleppo, Syria
Image credit - Google

हजारोंची उघड शिरकाण झाली आहे, शेकडो अजूनही पडलेल्या इमारतींच्या ढिगाऱ्याखाली प्राणहीन अवस्थेत आहेत. बेचिराख झालेल्या अलेप्पोचे पुनर्वसन, शिक्षण व्यवस्था, वैद्यकीय व्यवस्था, संस्कृती आणि सामान्य समाजमन पूर्णपणे उभारी घेईपर्येंत पुढील काही वर्ष जातील, त्याची इतिहासात नोंद होईल, या युद्धाचा तपशीलवार अभ्यास होईल, कठीण काळ हवेत वीरूनही जाईल. सांप्रत काळातील अतिभयंकर आणि विध्वंसक समजल्या गेलेल्या या कत्तलीला जबाबदार असणाऱ्या संबंधित राष्ट्रांचा, घटकांचा, मुत्सद्देगिरीचा, लढाईचा आणि तुमच्या-आमच्या माणुसकीचा हा पराभव आहे हे मात्र विसरून चालणार नाही. 

                                                                                                                                                 - वज़ीर 

हा लेख मंगळवार, २० डिसेंबर २०१६च्या 'सकाळ'च्या संपादकीय पानावर (पान ६) छापण्यात आला.

I spoke briefly with IBN Lokmat about the assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov and its Syrian connection. 

Donald Trump Pvt. Ltd.

   

Thursday, 9th November 2016.

Just after 3.30 AM, Hilton Hotel, Manhattan, New York.

      Donald Trump accompanied by his youngest son Barron,  his third wife Melania Trump and his running mate Mike Pence made his way on to the stage. Projection of the 2016 US Presidential election was out from the major media houses. Not more than 30 minutes ago, Donald Trump was just shy by 6 votes to 270. He was leading Hillary Clinton and maintained a count of 244. He pocketed Pennsylvania with a solid lead of 20 votes that propelled him to 264 v o t es. His dream was just a hand away. His demeanor bright and prominent like never before. He was ready to make a fresh entry to the helm. A seat in an Oval office that he thought of just four years ago and made it public wish to conquer it just over a year. No one, no one with an average political consciousness took him seriously among the crowded arena of the Republican party with 17 contenders. These 17 contenders, a mix of amateur politicians, surgeons, establishment candidates, Senators, Governors, and businessmen looked as if all of them were on to a conquest to throw the very foundations of the Grand Old Party into shambles. But proving them all wrong and turning out to be the undeniable hero of this election season, Donald J. Trump was elected as the 45th President of The United States!

With 8 years of Democratic rule, the tension in the Republican party was soaring high. The thirst to grab the White House was high as never before. An age where the dominance of the United States mattered to every sector of the world geography and to every vertical of human life, they saw it in a declining mode. New wars had emerged in the past 8 years and the diversity with which geopolitics and real-politics turn was pacing dynamically. And midst of this very thought, these 17 contenders fought with each other. Their only aim was to sideline or at-least avoid Jeb Bush to make it to the Republican nomination. And with this aim, that was about to take them all except Donald Trump down which they never realized until it was very late. Since day one into the campaign and day one onto the debate stage, Donald Trump spoke everything which was unconditional, non-traditional and in the crudest possible way. He shattered all the ethical ways a decent politician should behave or at-least should present himself or herself when he or she is taking a shot at the most powerful position on the planet. But he denied it all, he acted by his principles and he played by his own rules. Donald Trump had carved a place for him both on the stage and within the Americans. Considered as a political outsider and ignored by a large class of politicians and pundits, no one took him seriously. But, like a ship that sailed across the ocean no matter which way the wind was blowing, he kept on saying what he had to. He spoke about Americans, American dream and how he would Make America Great Again! Explosively! The 'Trump Train' compelled everyone to go off the tracks with only Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and John Kasich left in the arena. Among them, Kasich was just able to secure a popular vote during the primary in Ohio. Marco Rubio who is considered as the blue-eyed boy of the Republican party and almost all the party officials and the anti-Trump lobby supported him. But Rubio performed poor and soon had to drop out of the race. The race in the final days of the Republican nomination was between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. The Republican establishment including the Bush family, party representatives and a chunk of them including House Speaker Paul Ryan decided to go with Cruz. But to their misfortune, Cruz could never match the skills that Trump got into play to draw his support nor was Cruz able to grab enough delegates on his side. There was a lot of talks where it was discussed how to stop Trump or how to derail his train at the Republican National Convention. Nothing could stop him by then and he chose Governor Mike Pence of Indiana to be with him on the ticket. 

It was a straight-off with Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine on the other side of the aisle. And the race heated up like never before. The most unique election season of the modern election history with a seasoned politician on one side and a business Mogul. Both have made to the top of their careers and professional lives in  New-York. Hillary and Trump started exchanging jabs at each other from day one and it seemed that her campaign was more sophisticated, more precise and more well-mannered. And despite making it to the Republican nomination, Donald Trump refused to change his non-traditional political manner. Hillary simply attacked him. And the common issues to be discussed on a campaign platform were thrown to the corners. It all became a personal blame-game and the candidates surpassing all the limits of a sober campaign. The American election campaigns are never sober. But this was different. Hillary's experience of mainstream politics of 30+ years became her baggage and she was constantly noted to have failed to give a clear policy and political message. Trump, on the other hand, attracted a large number of Americans with his 'America First' policy. He played it the most unethical way a politician should play. He spoke statements which were critical, voiced out opinions that many politicians would even refuse to talk in-private and he soared publicity-wise. There was no beat for his television appearance experience and he made use of it to the core. Major media-houses and news channels endorsed Hillary. Many of them predicted a landslide victory for her. She clearly won the first debate where Trump was ill-prepared. It all changed from the second debate where Trump with his strong body language and strong criticism fought a tough battle and made the news again. It was after this debate that an audio tape dated back to 2005 surfaced which found Donald Trump with lewd comments about women and it seemed for that moment that it was a clear end for him. But, he was shrewd enough to apologize and make it to the news again.

Meanwhile, Wikileaks had posted many emails that got Hillary and her campaign manager John Podesta in trouble. The third debate was a fierce one and just before 20 days to election day it made a serious impact. It was just 8 days before the election that the tables turned away for Hillary Clinton. FBI Director James Comey briefed to the Congress that FBI was about to re-probe the 'e-mail scam'. It was just two days to the election day that Hillary was given a clean-cheat but it was very late till then. For Hillary, the trouble started with Clinton Foundation and the amount of unprecedented access she gave to the donors of the Clinton Foundation to the US State Department. It was a clear conflict of interest. She also made it to the news when her top-aide Huma Abedin worked at the Clinton Foundation and the State Department. It was a strict no-no to what Hillary did. There were a rising thought and a temperament against her, her misuse of power and non-transparency she bought into her political life and charity life. Clinton Foundation, Huma Abedin, and Anthony Weiner have cost Hillary Clinton the presidency. And with Comey in the field, he hit the last nail in the coffin. Voters from the American base have clearly ignored and voted against Hillary. It was her defeat as was the defeat of Democratic party and defeat of President Barack Obama. The Democratic party lost both the houses of Congress and is left on the sidelines. With the mandate coming out, it is a traditional way that the loser comes out in public and concedes the defeat. Hillary refused to do so. She is said to have telephoned Donald Trump late on the election night. She came out before the press on the next morning with obvious signs of a tough night and a body language with no confidence which was boosting while she was striding across the nation during the campaign. 2016 is considered to be the end of her political career. Later, President Bill Clinton said that 'Comey cost them the election'. Well, he seriously did. (!) The 'Clinton Machine' was considered to be invincible in Washington. Comey took them out single-handed. Politicians are never supposed to underestimate their opponents. Hillary took Trump for granted and in-spite of a tarnished image across the nation, he was able to knock her off. 

For Donald Trump it is a dream come true. No doubt that he played it extremely smart. His entire campaign was a trick which he rolled off like a magician. His every statement wasn't just made out of emotions or just to grab attention. It was a well defined plan to make the most impact. And it did so. He swept major states and almost ended the political career of Hillary Clinton. He as of now the stats show, came out of ashes. Media, world leaders, Democrats and his own party members were rolled against him. He has had a bad popularity and an equally bad series of serious allegations. He made it to the top through all of it. His story is a definite success story. From reality shows, to the arena of WWE, to real estate that has spanned across many nations, to the Trump brand, to the Trump airlines, to the fashion capitals and to the Miss Universe pageants, Trump was always in the limelight. He converted those reality shows into mass reality. He gave the American masses that they wanted to hear for a long time now. He appealed to a large class which was sidelined by the Washington politics, which has been cheated for decades now. Their jobs were outsources, their rights diminished and their nationalism under fire. Trump made a case for them. For them, they needed that someone who was unethical and unconventional at the same time. That someone who would voice out a real opinion and not veil down an issue with a conventional political correctness. They needed someone who was not politically correct but rather non-politically true. Trump was an instant hero. But, for obvious reasons and for the sake of the electoral politics, his wave was undermined and underestimated. His team which comprised of Corey Lewandowski, Kellyanne Conway and Ivanka Trump fought his battle behind the scenes. He gave the Republicans the victory they never thought of. At least not when they knew when Hillary was against them in the bout. He made that difference, he went that extra mile. His difference is that he is not a political figure. He is out-of-the-box in the American politics where many of the past Presidents have had a Law degree from Chicago or Yale. He hasn't served in the military nor has fought any overseas war for his nation. He is the most non-conventional choice made by the American people. And this gets highlighted in backdrop to a survey which said that 60% of the Americans were not happy electing either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump as their President. And yet, while choosing lesser evil between the two evils, they chose Donald Trump!

There is a lot that needs to be done from his end now that he is the President-Elect of the United States of America. He now owns the 'rigged system' which has been his selling point all-throughout. He now heads the government that he claims will work for the middle-class Americans. The world now is waiting to watch him how he gets the jobs back to America, how he repeals Obamacare and gets a less expensive yet strong health-care program, how he calls of the Trans-Pacific-Partnership and gets some good revenue for his country, how he tackles the rising ambitions of China and Russia, how he manages with his Middle-East allies to defeat ISIS. (which according to him Hillary and President Obama created) The work that lies ahead for him is 'Yuge'. He now owns what he has been pointing out for many years now. The American citizens historically have had no interest so as to what their country scored on the foreign relations. He needs to make a distinction while tackling the issues that matter to the Americans and America. Trump spoke about avoiding wars. His temperament does not speak so. He is considered to be as hawkish as Hillary Clinton. His choice of cabinet sheds a bright light on what he prefers. He as of now has three military generals appointed for the important roles in his administration. His entire cabinet either is super-rich, hawkish, pro-private sector or comprises of someone who has had a deep connection with the Wall Street, Goldman Sachs or the oil sector. Trump also talks about siding with Vladimir Putin on several issues. The Obama administration has been touted by the Russian counterparts in several instances in the Syrian conflict now. The United States in the recent past has been on receiving end for several issues across on the international relations platform where Putin is emerging as a strong and shrewd leader. It will be amazing to see how Trump will handle an established opponent like Putin. 

As of now, Trump has praised Putin publicly. He has also undermined the US intelligence agencies who have reported of serious hacking by the Russians during the 2016 U.S Presidential election. His public statements and his fire-brand tweets are drawing a major criticism and most of the people will spend next 4 years on Twitter just to tell how bad Trump's tweets are! He will have to be careful with his conflict of interests. He has already announced to drop off all his relations with his businesses and claims that his children will look after it. So far it has not been true. Ivanka Trump who now is into his transition team was seen by his side when he met the Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe at Trump Tower after the election results. She presumably is said to have an office booked in the West Wing. Jared Kushner has been someone Donald Trump has trusted the way he never trusts anyone. Kushner, his son-in-law has been a center-pillar for his digital campaign and for the strongest decisions that Trump has stood for in the past two years. Kushner being a heavy-wight-Jew-businessman has reportedly 'managed' the Jew lobby for Trump. Kushner also has settled scores with Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey who had a bad past with Kushner's father - Charles Kushner. Christie was among the first GOP leaders to back Trump. It is also said that Trump wanted Christie to be his running mate but Kushner 'convinced' Trump not to do so. It was a dramatic move by Kushner when Christie was first appointed to lead Trump's transition team and was called-off later. Of all, when Trump made it to the White House to see President Obama just two days after the election, it was Jared Kushner who strolled with Denis McDonough the current White House Chief of Staff on the South Lawns while President Obama and Trump discussed beginning of the 'peaceful' transition. Jared Kushner is now appointed as the Personal Confidant to the President-Elect!

Trump views the foreign affairs from a businessman's perspective - in a pure transnational way. It will be very interesting to see how he handles the issues which are boiling very fast. He needs to tackle a wide range of issues that I am sure he is unaware of. He reportedly was surprisingly 'amazed' to know how things work at the White House and the how and what the POTUS is briefed, daily. His 'America First' will not work when handling complex issues like the Syrian conflict. How he handles his isolation on the fronts where diplomacy is shattered by the raging wars and on the fronts where the weapon lobby is constantly looking out for new war zones is to be seen! The challenges that are waiting for him are very different than he has faced in his past. It is not about his business anymore. It is now that an entire country will not expect him to go wrong - wrong with his policies and wrong with their choice. Donald Trump now sits atop the right-wing, national leaders who are now emerging in the world politics. We have had seen the global political paradigm being shifted to either sides every 80-90 years. The current generation is now backing someone who talks about the national sentiment and scores cards on being super-right-winged. A case that Hillary miserably failed to bring on the table. She was happy being called secular American card that comprises of Latinos, Hispanics, African-Americans, Mexicans, Asians and what not. Trump grabbed the sentiment where a major class called out loud for the 'original American nationalism'. He now leads this band of global leaders emerging up regularly. Add Narendra Modi, Bashar al-Assad, Nigel Farage, Theresa May, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping to the list. 

A private, family business made Trump an international celebrity. A family-owned political business will hit him hard if he does so. Trump is said to throw away the GOP on the sidelines and the current trend shows him to be on his own away from the party shadows. His party though won't flinch to overthrow and impeach him if he acts in a haphazard way. His political correctness will gain him maximum if he 'canvasses by poetry and governs by prose'. Unlikely to that term, he is speculated to cause a lot of noise, further dividing the GOP, churning off the traditional give-and-take Washington politics! 

Welcome to Donald Trump Pvt. Ltd!

                                                                                                                                     - Vazir

The Marathi version of this article was published in the editorial section of 'Sakal' dated Tuesday, 22nd November 2016.

डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प आणि प्रायव्हेट लिमिटेड!

२०१६च्या अमेरिकी अध्यक्षीय निवडणुकीत डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प यांनी हिलरी क्लिंटन यांना अस्मान दाखवले. अध्यक्षपदाची सूत्रे अधिकृतपणे हाती घेण्यासाठी ट्रम्प यांना सुमारे  दीड महिन्यांचा वेळ आहे.  नव्या अध्यक्षाला या अवधीत सुमारे ४००० कर्मचारी आणि  आपल मंत्रिमंडळ स्थापन करायचे असते. जिंकण्याची पूर्ण शाश्वती नसताना ट्रम्प यांनी ही तयारी केली नव्हती. त्यामुळे आता मंत्र्यांची नेमणूक करताना त्यांची पळापळ होत आहे. येत्या काही दिवसांत त्यांना ही नेमणूक करून आपली धोरण आखायला सुरुवात करावी लागेल.

Image credit - Google

ट्रम्प निवडून आल्यावर अमेरिकेतील एक मोठा वर्ग त्यांच्या विरोधात निदर्शन करण्यासाठी रस्त्यावर उतरला. काही ठिकाणी त्याला हिंसक वळणदेखील लागले. ट्रम्प राज्य करू पाहणाऱ्या पुढील चार वर्षांत त्यांना अश्या विरोधाचा सामना नक्की करावा लागेल. आपल्या विजयानंतर दिलेल्या एक मुलाखतीत त्यांनी 'आपण अमेरिकेत बेकायदा वास्तव्य करणाऱ्या ३० लाख लोकांना हद्दपार करू' असे सांगून खळबळ उडवून दिली आहे. मायकल फ्लिन, स्टिव्ह बॅनोन या वादग्रस्तांची नेमणूक करून ट्रम्प आपल्या उजव्या, अमेरिकाकेंद्रित आणि इस्लामविरोधी विचारसरणीला अधिक धार देत आहेत. त्यांच्या या निर्णयावर  जोरदार टीका होत आहे. वॉशिंग्टनमध्ये नेत्याचे राजकीय वजन आणि प्रभाव  त्याचा सहकारी आणि कर्मचारी वर्ग किती उत्तम आहे यावर ठरतो. 

चौकटीबाहेरचे राजकारणी असणाऱ्या ट्रम्प यांचा विजय हा राजकारणाचा बाज बदलत असल्याचे निदर्शित करतो. वर्षभरापूर्वी राजकारणात सक्रिय झालेल्या ट्रम्प यांनी हिलरींच्या ४० वर्षांच्या राजकारणाला सुरुंग लावला आहे. मात्र, ज्या व्यवस्थेला शिव्या देत ट्रम्प निवडून आले आता त्या च व्यवस्थेच्या सर्वोच्च पदावर त्यांची नेमणूक झाली आहे. त्यांना काम करण्याशिवाय आता गत्यंतर नाही. 'अमेरिकेची आर्थिकदृष्ट्या भरभराट करू' असे सांगणारे ट्रम्प नक्की काय करणार हे कोणालाच माहित नाही.

(L-R) Donald Trump Jr. Donald J. Trump, Eric Trump
Image credit - Google

ग्रामीण, श्वेतवर्णीय अमेरिकेतील एक मोठा वर्ग ट्रम्प यांच्याकडे अपेक्षेने पाहत आहे. वॉशिंग्टनकेंद्रित राजकारणाने हा वर्ग बाजूला फेकल्याने त्यांची तळी उचलून ट्रम्प जिंकले. या वर्गाच्या अपेक्षा अमेरिकाकेंद्रित आहेत. स्थानिक पातळीवर आर्थिक सक्षमीकरण, रोजगार, उत्तम आणि परवडू शकणारी आरोग्यव्यवस्था या त्यांच्या प्रमुख मागण्या आहेत. अमेरिका बाकी जगात आपलं परराष्ट्रीय धोरण राबवून काय उच्छाद मांडते यात त्यांना रस नाही. कधीच नसतो. ट्रम्प हे अमेरिकेचे परराष्ट्रीय धोरण हे एका उद्योगपतीच्या चष्म्यातून बघतात. संधी मिळेल तिथे अमेरिकेचे नाक दाबू पाहणारे व्लादिमिर पुतीन हे अमेरिकेतील राजकीय वर्तुळात बहुतेक जणांना पटत नाहीत. निवडून आल्यानंतर ट्रम्प आणि पुतीन यांनी 'आपल्या दोन देशांचे गैरसमज टाळू, काही अंशी हात मिळवू' अशी चर्चा करून अनेक जणांना धक्का दिला आहे. सीरियात जाऊन तिथे अंतिमतः विरोधी गटात मोडणाऱ्या रशियाशी लढण्यात आपल्याला काही स्वारस्य नाही असे ट्रम्प सांगत आहेत. त्यांची अशी अलिप्त भूमिका त्यांना पाठिंबा देणाऱ्या आणि प्रचंड अर्थकारण जोपासणाऱ्या 'गन लॉबी'ला रुचणार का, पोलिसगिरी सोडून अमेरिका आपला धाक स्वहस्ते कमी  करून घेणार का हे प्रश्न आता डोके वर काढत आहेत. नव्या अध्यक्ष्याच्या धोरणांचा अंदाज येत नाही तोपर्येंत बाकी जग हे सावध भूमिका घेते. ट्रम्प यांना जोखण्यासाठी बाकी जग थोडा जास्त वेळ घेईल अशी शक्यता आहे. दहशतवादी गट जगात इतरत्र छोटे-मोठे हल्ले करून ट्रम्प यांची काय प्रतिक्रिया असेल याची चाचपणी करतील. त्यामुळे अमेरिकेच्या नव्या नायकासमोरचे ताट आव्हानांनी पूर्ण भरलेले आहे यात शंका नाही. 

ट्रम्प चमूमध्ये त्यांच्या मुलांचा सहभाग अनेकांना पचत नाहीये. त्यांचा जावई जारेड खुशनेर याचा त्यांच्या एकंदर निर्णयप्रक्रियेत चांगलाच दबदबा आहे! स्वतः ज्यू असणारे खुशनेर 'ज्यू लॉबी'च्या हिताचे निर्णय घेतील असे दिसते. असे नामचीन घटक आजूबाजूला असताना ट्रम्प स्वयंभू निर्णय घेतात की अश्या घटकांना बळी पडतात हे बघण आजच्या काळाची गरज आहे. सत्ता शहाणपण शिकवते असे म्हणतात. ते ट्रम्प दाखवतील अशी आशा आहे. अमेरिकी काँग्रेसचे दोन्ही सभागृह आणि अध्यक्षपदावर नियंत्रण मिळवून रिपब्लिकन पक्ष सर्वंकष सत्ता राबवू शकतो. मात्र राज्याभिषेकानंतर ज्या 'व्हाईट हाऊस'चा ताबा डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प येत्या २० जानेवारीपासून आपल्या हातात घेतील त्याला एक स्वभाव आणि स्वतःचे असे स्वतंत्र अस्तित्त्व आहे. ते अस्तित्त्व जगातल्या या सर्वात शक्तिशाली मानवाला आपला कार्यक्रम राबवताना पुढील चार वर्ष सतत आपली आठवण करून देत असत. याच अस्तित्त्वाच्या जोरावर अमेरिकेचे सामर्थ्य बाकी जगावर लादायला सोपे जाते.

The Trump family.
Image credit - Google

मात्र, त्यासाठी या गुरफटून टाकणाऱ्या अदृश्य भावनेला भेदून आपले धोरण राबवणारा तडगा गडी पाहिजे. इतिहास पाहता खमका अध्यक्ष म्हणून समजले जाणारे अनेकजण असे करताना निष्प्रभ ठरले आहेत. सांप्रत काळातील आव्हाने आणि ट्रम्प यांचा अनुभव पाहता त्यांना तर हे मुळीच सोपे जाणार नाही. एककल्ली, उजव्या विचारसरणीच्या नेतृत्वाच्या दिशेने जगाचा रोख सुरु आहे. ट्रम्प त्यात अग्रस्थानी जाऊन बसले आहेत. राजकारणाचा हा पोत दर ८०-९० वर्षांनी बदलतो आहे. माईक पेन्स यांच्यासारखा नेमस्त रिपब्लिकन त्यांना उपाध्यक्ष म्हणून लाभला आहे. बाकी ट्रम्प रिपब्लिकन पक्षाला जुमानणार नाहीत. चोख धोरण, चांगले-वाईट निर्णय रेटू पाहणारा स्वभाव, पराभव आणि टीका पचवायची हिंमत आणि सरतेशेवटी राष्ट्रहिताचा विचार हे भांडवल त्यांना या आव्हानात तारून नेऊ शकेलही. मात्र, अमेरिकी अध्यक्षीय कामाचा आवाका आणि जबाबदारीचा अंदाज न आल्यामुळे जनतेचा रोष, जागतिक पातळीवरची टीका, अमेरिकेची ढासळणारी प्रतिमा आणि महाभियोगासारख्या गोष्टींचा सामना त्यांना करावा लागण्याची शक्यताच जास्त आहे.

                                                                                                                                                  - वज़ीर

हा लेख मंगळवार, २२ नोव्हेंबर २०१६च्या 'सकाळ'च्या संपादकीय पानावर (पान ६) छापण्यात आला.